NBA Playoff Notes: Rest & Adjustments

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You may or may not have head a quip or two about how it’s all a numbers game. Although this phrase is most often used in the sales world, the exact same thing applies to you and your sports betting. Well, to be fair, the wisdom about to be revealed below applies to you only if you take your sports betting activities seriously. Seriously in this case means you want to end up more money in your wallet at the end of the year, the season, whatever metric applies.

That being said, if all you ever want to do is throw down some of your hard earned money on the occasional sports bet or place a wager on your alma mater just because, well have at it. On the other hand, if you are more of the type that considers sports betting an activity to be engaged in for profit then there is a piece of fundamental numbers wisdom in the small numbers.

And lest you think small has nothing to do with gambling or wagering returns you would be wrong. Consider that casinos, whether land based or online casinos and the like make billions, yes billions of dollars all because of the very small house edge. In some casino games, these percentage can be shockingly tiny, as in 0.7%. Yet, as long as the casino maintains that house edge over time, billions of profits will keep hitting the bottom line.

Small in the case of sports betting refers to nothing other than the actual number of wins compared to the actual numbers of wins expressed as a percentage. Here’s one way to look at what this means: consider that the percentage wins over losses is your personal house edge. So the next most obvious question is what is the percentage you need to maintain?

Would you believe that you only need to hit a tad more than 52% to stay on top and come out with more money than you started with? If you are thinking that sounds too low to make a difference, well then candidly, you might want to take a closer look.

The reality, the unvarnished truth if you will, is that it is this understanding that really separates the pros from the wannabes. Bottom line is this: sports betting success is about knowing and tracking your numbers. If you are tracking your numbers along the way then you can clearly see where you might need to make a course correction. That being said, don’t lose sight of the fact that all you ever need to do is maintain your personal house edge.

Naturally when you pull out your wallet and hand over some cash to place a sports bet you are hoping, perhaps even crossing your fingers for the best and looking for that big payoff. And, truth be told, the big payoffs or even the medium payoffs are out there. All it takes is a bit of study and practice to learn what works most of the time and what you had best stay away from. At the same time you probably already know that sports betting is a long term play. It is never about focusing on one game or one event. Nope, the ones who really come out ahead with their sports betting activities practice the long term game. They are in it for the long haul.

Now that is out of the way, here is one Sports Betting bet you would be well served to get acquainted with or review if you are already up to speed on this one. This sports betting strategy is most often referred to as a Reverse Line Movement sports wagering strategy.

The Reverse Line Movement betting strategy begins with a close look at what the average ‘Joe’ sports bettor trend happens to be. Then, that trend is turned upside down. In other words, the Reverse Line bet is one that goes against the public. Take a look at a hypothetical example to see how this could play out in practice.

Suppose you happen to be looking at team A and team C. You take a close look at what your favorite sports book is reporting and learn that the numbers are posted as follows: Team A -14, Team B +14. From having done this a few times, you know that means that 80% of the wagers are placed on Team C. But more importantly you also notice that the line suddenly moves against Team A such that all of a sudden it is posted as Team A -13.

From hard won experience you now quickly conclude that big money has come in (sometimes referred to as the “smart money”) and made a play against Team C. Moving even more rapidly now, you immediately search for a sports book offering Team C +14 and place your sports bet. For the record, if done correctly, this strategy can generate some pretty significant wins for you. At the same time you must be fully aware that you will need to practice both patience and be ready to make a move at a moment’s notice.

As you can see, although the Reverse Line Movement can look complicated to describe in print, it is not really that difficult to understand. Play around with the idea a bit then try it out for real.


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